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gut-feeling-estimates.md

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Gut feeling estimates

How to get "rough" estimates of effort to fulfill some kind of work package? Based on gut feelings: Estimation must be done by the one who can or will do the work. Estimation result will be one of the following "natural" ranges

minute, hour, day, week, month, quarter, year

Meaning

  • minute: 1 to 60 minutes
  • hour: 1 to 24 hours
  • day: 1 to 5 days
  • week: 1 to 4 weeks
  • month: 1 to 3 month
  • quarter: 1 to 4 quarters
  • year: 1 to open end

Usage for receiver (the one who ask for estimate)

For instance, if you get the estimate "day", you know it may be one to 5 days. Thats it. Do not ask for more accuracy. Just take it with you.
It is up to the receiver to manage the "risk" which amount of days to use.
This will lead us to to get (good!) estimates very fast. If the work has started, you can ask again, after some time of work.

Usage for worker (the one who will do the work)

  1. If you have really no idea, ask for a short time box ("minute" or "hour") to walkthrough the work. It is importand to time-box this.
  2. Walk through the units in mind, for instance: Is it possible in minutes? No. In Hours? No. In days? No. In weeks? Maybe => estimate is "week".

Prerequisites

  1. Trust.
  2. Networking tool to record Shared Understanding. Every participant has read and write access to it. The estimates must be visible there.
References